My thoughts on TG Daily’s “Microsoft blindsided vulnerable Apple with Windows 7″

by Justin Horn on Oct 23rd, 2009 @ 3:51 pm

Just saw this TG Daily article on Daring Fireball, Gruber had this to say:

I’m coming around to the idea that Enderle’s really a genius and his doofus routine is a Stephen Colbert-esque schtick.

Unfortunately Gruber is joking (at least I hope so)…Enderle is not a genius. I pretty much disagree with everything he says in this article with the exception of the Magic Mouse (Apple has never been good at making mice) and when Apple almost went belly up.

Let’s take a look at “Windows 7: A New Hope” section of the post:

Steve Jobs and Apple clearly planned for the same traditional behavior [Windows launch failure] and were completely unprepared for both the quality of Windows 7 and the fact Microsoft has a war chest this time. Their near pathetic recent release of a couple slightly improved PCs and a couple peripherals showcases this. They figured they could easily skate through the next few months because, traditionally, Microsoft would be vulnerable and not able to fight back.

The new updates were just that, updates. They got faster hardware and a few other tweaks with the lone MacBook getting the biggest upgrade. Apple is not “unprepared”, but instead sticking with what works and Windows 7 isn’t going to change that. Not sure what Rob thinks Apple should have released? Apple isn’t going to suddenly start competing in the thin margin budget computer business.

Windows 7 should shake some of the bad Vista press (just as XP did for Windows Millennium), but the problem for Microsoft is all the negative press has pushed Apple into the spotlight…even with their teeny weeny market share. People that have never considered a Mac are now thinking about “the switch”. Add in the success of the iPhone and iPod touch and Apple has gained a much larger audience than they ever have before.

Here is what’s really going to happen for Apple and Microsoft in the Windows 7 world:

  • People running XP now will continue using XP for as long as they have that computer, especially businesses.
  • At lot of people running Vista will pay the upgrade fee since it will probably be worth the price to get the hell off Vista.
  • People on a tighter budget will buy a new cheap PC with Windows 7 just as they would if it still had Vista on it.
  • People deciding between a Mac and PC will not be swayed to a PC by Windows 7, they just won’t be pushed to Apple by Vista (so one plus for Microsoft here).

Rob wraps things up with:

Two good lessons here, even when you are on top it is very foolish to under estimate a competitor with Microsoft’s resources because they can actually get it right, and picking too many fights at once can take out the most powerful of entities just as it took out a nearly unbeatable Germany in the second world war.

Not even sure how to respond to this one. The “too many fights” is referring to the Droid (Google, Verizon, and Motorola) in addition to Microsoft. I don’t see how Apple is under estimating anyone? Apple is selling more Macs then they ever have before and have the fastest growing consumer devices ever with the iPhone and iPod touch. Looks to me like they are winning both wars.

Follow me on Twitter @justin_horn



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